The 68th Eurovision Song Contest, which has been marred by drama like no other, will conclude in a few hours from now, culminating in the elimination of the Netherlands from the Grand Final this morning.
Amidst an atmosphere of tension and unprecedented toxicity, we take a look at the betting companies’ odds regarding each country’s chances of winning this year’s contest, as well as their chances of being in the Top 10.
Croatia in pole position
With Croatia as the early favourites, the Eurovision 2024 final will take place this evening. The country that has been in first place more than any other has the best chance of winning just hours before the curtain falls on this year’s contest. The supersonic Baby Lasagna is very close to giving Croatia their first win as an independent nation in their Eurovision appearance. Right now, you can place bets on the Croats’ maiden victory at odds between 1.83 and 2.25.
Second is Israel, which is right on Croatia’s heels and sees its odds of victory remain largely unchanged from our analysis yesterday. Thus, Israel’s Eurovision 2024 win is being played at odds between 2.8 and 4.
In third place, gaining ground after last night’s performance, are Nemo and Switzerland. Switzerland and Nemo‘s victory is now being bet at odds between 4.5 and 5.5, up from 6 to 9 at the time of writing our analysis yesterday.
Up two places for Ireland and down one for France, who complete the top five. The possibility of Ireland winning is now offered between 17 and 23. On the other hand, France‘s odds of victory have risen compared to yesterday, now offered between 15 and 26.
Ukraine has dropped to sixth place, having lost three places in the last two days. With the odds on offer having risen significantly, currently as much as 34 times the stake is returned on a Ukrainian victory in Malmo.
In seventh place is Italy, who lost even more ground after last night’s performance at Jury Rehearsal. Between 21 and 51 is being played on the possibility of Angelina Mango winning.
A one place rise for Greece, which moved up one place compared to our analysis yesterday, “taking advantage” of the exclusion of the Netherlands. A possible victory of “ZARI” and Marina Satti is currently being played at odds between 81 and 251, with no change at all compared to yesterday.
Finland has moved up to ninth place, while Sweden completes the top ten, returning inside the Top 10 for the first time in many months. Both Finland and Sweden are both playing at a maximum odds of 251, exactly the same as ninth-placed Greece as well as the UK and Armenia, who are in 11th and 12th place.
Top 10
Of particular interest is one of the most popular markets for betting companies, that of entering the Top 10. Looking at the table below, it can be seen that bookers largely consider entry into the top 10 to be assured for a large proportion of the countries involved in the Grand Final.
The presence of four countries in the top 10 is considered a given. Croatia, Switzerland, Ukraine and Israel are “given a place” in the top 10, with bookies offering this possibility at odds of under 1.10.
France and Italy are almost taken for granted that they too will have a place in the top 10 at Eurovision 2024, with this possibility returning between 1.14 and 1.20 times the stake.
With the six spots in the Top 10 looking largely taken, four spots remain, with Ireland considered the seventh most likely to take a spot in the top ten at odds of 1.57.
Greece also has a very strong chance of a place inside the Top 10, being eighth in the table below and also the last country to offer odds of less than 2. In fact, a place inside the Top 10 for Marina Satti returns up to 1.91 times the stake.
Beyond that, the Netherlands‘ elimination from the grand final “opens up a spot” within the Top 10 that was considered by many to be a lock. Automatically, it opens the way for two more spots for the top 10 of the ranking. Thus, Sweden is considered the ninth most likely to make the top ten and Armenia the tenth most likely. Both are being played at odds close to 2.5.
Conclusions
We are only a few hours away from the most dramatic final in Eurovision history, which has been tainted by the events of the last few days in Malmö. Leaving aside everything that has marked the contest so far, tonight’s final is the most controversial of all time, where no one can accurately predict what will happen. All possibilities are open and no outcome will come as a surprise.
Which country do you think will win the 68th Eurovision Song Contest?
Stay tuned to Eurovisionfun for all the developments!
