Democrats chances of beating Republicans in "toss up" Senate races: polls (2024)

Recent polling shows Democrats' chances of beating Republicans in the three closest Senate races.

While all eyes are on the likely rematch between former President Donald Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, and President Joe Biden, downballot races can have a big impact on our political system.

Democrats hold a slim majority in the Senate, which has 49 Republicans, 47 Democrats and four independents who caucus with the Democrats. Republicans control the House of Representatives with 218 seats, while the Democrats have 213.

According to the Cook Political Report, an independent political newsletter, the Senate races in Montana, Nevada and Ohio are a toss-up, making them sure to be ones to watch.

Montana Senate Race

Senator Jon Tester is a Democrat in the red state of Montana. He assumed office in 2007. Tester won his most recent reelection against then-Republican state auditor Matt Rosendale in 2018 by nearly 18,000 votes (50.3 to 46.8 percent). In November, Tester will go up against former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, a Republican.

In a Montana State News Bureau/J.L. Partners poll conducted from March 26 to 29, Sheehy was leading Tester by 3 points (48 to 45 percent). The poll surveyed 503 likely voters in Montana with a margin of error of 4.3 percent.

Meanwhile, an Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll conducted between February 26 and March 2 found that Tester was ahead of Sheehy by 2 points (44 to 42 percent). The poll surveyed 1,00 registered voters in Montana and had a credibility interval, which is similar to a margin of error, of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Monica Robinson, spokesperson for Montanans For Tester, told Newsweek via email on Thursday, "Jon Tester is no stranger to tough races. He's won three in a row because he has a strong coalition of support across the state, including independent voters and Republicans, and he relentlessly defends Montana every day."

Newsweek reached out to Sheehy's campaign via online form for comment.

Nevada Senate Race

Senator Jacky Rosen, a Democrat who assumed office in 2019, is running for reelection in the swing state of Nevada. Rosen unseated Republican Senator Dean Heller in 2018 by nearly 49,000 votes (50.4 to 45.4 percent). It is unclear who will be the Democrat and Republican nominees in the upcoming Senate election given that the state's Senate primary elections have yet to take place. The primary elections are scheduled for June 11.

Retired Army Captain Sam Brown is the leading Republican candidate in the polls.

According to a Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research poll from May 19 to 21, 48 percent of Nevadans would vote for Rosen and 35 percent would vote for Brown in a head-to-head matchup. The poll surveyed 522 adults living in Nevada. A poll of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.

Meanwhile, a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll conducted from April 28 to May 9 found that 40 percent of registered voters in Nevada would support Rosen while 38 percent would vote for Brown. The poll surveyed 614 Nevadans and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

However, Republican candidate Jeff Gunter, who served as a U.S. ambassador to Iceland during the Trump administration, was leading in a poll conducted by Kaplan Strategies/Jeffrey Ross Gunter on May 30.

In the poll, Gunter had a 1-point lead over Brown (31 to 30 percent). The poll surveyed 802 likely Republican primary voters and had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

Gunter's campaign told Newsweek on Thursday that the candidate is "absolutely" confident he can win the primary and unseat Rosen.

Kristy Wilkinson, communications director for Brown's campaign told Newsweek via email on Thursday: "We'll win our primary on Tuesday and go on to win against Senator Rosen in November because Nevadans know Captain Brown, respect his leadership credentials, and are desperate for a way out of this American nightmare.

"The Rosen-Biden team has ignored America's cry for a secure border and stable economy. Senator Rosen will not be reelected on Election Day, and Captain Brown will have the more challenging job of fixing her mess."

Newsweek reached out to Rosen via email for comment.

Ohio Senate Race

Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat who assumed office in 2007, will face Republican business owner Bernie Moreno in the upcoming election. Brown won his most recent reelection against then-Republican Representative Jim Renacci by a little over 300,000 votes (53.4 to 46.6 percent). Ohio has remained mostly a red state in recent history, although Barack Obama won it in the 2008 and 2012 elections.

According to a National Public Affairs poll conducted from May 28 to 29, 54 percent of "uninformed" Ohioans support Brown while 46 percent support Moreno. The subsample of "uninformed" poll respondents was 405. Brown still led over Moreno with "informed" Ohioans (53 to 47 percent). The subsample of "informed" poll respondents was 392. The margin of error of the entire poll, which had a sample of 802 general election voters in Ohio was plus or minus 3.5 percent.

There has not been much polling conducted since Ohio's primary elections in March, but earlier that month Brown was still leading over Moreno.

In a Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research poll conducted on March 13, 47 percent of likely voters said they'd support Brown while 36 percent said Moreno. The poll surveyed 818 Ohio adults and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percent.

Newsweek reached out to Brown via email and Moreno via online form for comment.

Update 6/6/24, 2:48 p.m. ET: This story was updated to include a comment from Gunter's campaign and to say that Ohio's primary elections happened in March instead of April.

Update 6/6/24, 4:25 p.m. ET: This story was updated with comment from Tester's campaign.

Update, 6/7/24, 9:41 a.m. ET: The headline was changed.

Update 6/7/24, 10:16 a.m. ET: This story was updated with comment from Sam Brown's campaign.