It’s time to go on record with Week 14 NFLpicks against the spread.
Stats are courtesy of TruMedia and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.
Last week: 9-5
Season: 99-93-2
Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, FOX/NFLN
This line fromThe Athletic’sArif Hasan perfectly summed up the state of the 2021 Vikings:
At 5-7, the Vikings are both “in the hunt” for a wild card spot and on the verge of letting go of their seven-year head coach.
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The Vikings have been wildly entertaining to the neutral observer (10 of their 12 games have been decided by seven points or fewer) and wildly frustrating to their actual fans.
The Steelers, meanwhile, are coming off of a thrilling win last week against the Baltimore Ravens. I don’t trust either of these teams, but the Steelers have covered 66.1 percent of the time as underdogs in the regular season under Mike Tomlin.
The pick: Steelers (+3.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
There’s really not a lot separating these two teams. The Ravens are 8-4, and the Browns are 6-6. But if you look at the advanced stats like DVOA from Football Outsiders, the Browns have actually performed like the better team.
The Ravens have persevered through injuries since the start of training camp, but it’s fair to wonder whether the latest blow — losing cornerback Marlon Humphrey — proves to be one too many.
As for the Browns, it feels like there’s so much riding on the final five games. Maybe the late bye will serve them well, and they’ll be healthy and fresh and go on a run. On the other hand, they have just a 25.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. If they miss out, are they a potential sleeper team to take a big swing on a veteran quarterback this offseason?
Part of me thinks the Browns bounce back here, but with Lamar Jackson as their starter, the Ravens are 8-2 against the spread as underdogs. I’m taking Baltimore.
The pick: Ravens (+2.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-8.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Titans are coming off their bye having lost back-to-back games. The good news is they’re 8-4 and have the NFL’s easiest remaining schedule.
The Jaguars are 2-10 and have lost four in a row. By just about any measure, they’re one of the NFL’s worst teams and have shown no real signs of improving.
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If you want to make the case that 8.5 points is too many for a team like Tennessee that lost 22-13 to the Houston Texans three weeks ago, go for it. But they have a significant coaching advantage here, and I just can’t back this Jaguars team and feel good about it.
The pick: Titans (-8.5)
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points to an opponent during their current five-game winning streak. But as noted earlier this week, their offense still doesn’t look the same. According to TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) per drive model, the Chiefs have produced just one offensive performance in their past eight games that ranks in the 75th percentile or higher league-wide. Who was that performance against? The Raiders, during a 41-14 victory in Week 10.
In their past five games, the Raiders’ offense has topped 16 points just once. Four of those games were losses.
I don’t like this matchup for the Raiders’ defense, and I don’t trust the Raiders’ offense.
The pick: Chiefs (-8.5)
New Orleans Saints at New York Jets (+5.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
The Jets’ defense was terrible last week, getting picked apart by Gardner Minshew and the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense. They rank 32nd in defensive DVOA on the season. The offense moved the ball, but Zach Wilson left a lot of plays on the field in the second half.
The Saints have lost five in a row, and their past three losses have been by a combined 46 points. New Orleans could be without Cam Jordan, and Taysom Hill might try to play through a finger injury. The good news for the Saints is that Alvin Kamara could be back.
There are plenty of reasons to take the Jets here, but I’m counting on the Saints’ defense to force some turnovers and lead the way to an ugly victory.
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The pick: Saints (-5.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team (+4) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
Washington has won four in a row and currently occupies the sixth seed in the NFC. They’ve won five one-possession games, which is tied for third-most of any team. Football Outsiders gives Washington a 24.9 percent chance of making the playoffs. They play the Cowboys twice, the Eagles twice and the Giants once in the final five weeks.
The Cowboys got a win last Thursday night against the Saints, but their offense has not been nearly as efficient as it was earlier in the season. In the five games since Dak Prescott returned from injury, three have been below-average in terms of EPA per drive. Dallas’ defense, however, is healthy and playing well. The combination of DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons will be tough for opponents to deal with the rest of the way.
The pick: Cowboys (-4)
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
What a strange, strange season it’s been for the Panthers. Imagine if before Week 1 I would have told you that going into their final five games, Cam Newton would be the starting quarterback and offensive coordinator Joe Brady would no longer be with the team. Carolina is 5-7 and has the NFL’s second-toughest remaining schedule. I’ll be shocked if they somehow sneak into the playoffs.
The Falcons are also 5-7, but the advanced stats hate Atlanta. They rank 32nd in DVOA behind even the Jaguars and Texans. There’s a scenario in this game where Carolina’s pass rush feasts on Matt Ryan, but Atlanta was relatively competitive last week against Tampa. I’ll take the points.
The pick: Falcons (+2.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans (+7.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
If a quarterback controversy happens in Houston and no one’s paying attention, does it still exist? As of this writing, we don’t know whether it will be Tyrod Taylor or Davis Mills for the Texans, and it probably doesn’t matter.
Russell Wilson looked more like his usual self last week in the Seahawks’ win against the San Francisco 49ers, but it’s too little, too late. They have a 1.5 percent chance of getting into the postseason.
The Texans’ defense has been competent for the most part, and Seattle’s offense looked terrible prior to last week. Houston keeps this one competitive.
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The pick: Texans (+7.5)
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (-8.5) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
Jared Goff throwing the winning touchdown against the Vikings and then running straight to Dan Campbell for a hug last week was a genuinely nice moment. Goff made some fantastic throws in that game.
The Broncos’ passing game was tough to watch as they managed just nine points in a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night. No team switches between competent and lifeless more often than Denver.
I’m trying to guard against recency bias here, but the Lions have not lost a game by more than a field goal since Week 8. This line is too high for me to trust Denver.
The pick: Lions (+8.5)
New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers (-10) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
The Giants are now 22-54 since the start of the 2017 season. That’s fewer wins than the Jaguars, Lions and every other team except for the Jets (21-54). They’ve legitimately been one of the NFL’s worst franchises over the past five years.
As for this game, if Mike Glennon is cleared from concussion protocol, he’ll get the start. If not, it will be Jake Fromm. On the Chargers’ side, it’s unclear if they’ll have Keenan Allen, Mike Williams or Christopher Harris.
I mean, how am I supposed to pick this game when we have no idea who’s playing? I guess this is the life I’ve chosen. I’ll just take the points. I’m sure this will work out great.
The pick: Giants (+10)
San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (+1) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
This might be the toughest Week 14 game to pick. I’ve flip-flopped roughly 400 times. Joe Burrow is dealing with a knee and pinkie injury, and it’s unclear how much he’ll practice this week. I thought Burrow still looked good even after suffering the injury during Sunday’s loss to the Chargers.
As I pointed out earlier this week, the 49ers’ offense has been elite when it’s had Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel on the field together. Samuel didn’t practice Wednesday, but he has a chance to get backfor this game. Kittle was a beast last week against Seattle.
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Burrow battling through the injuries, lighting up the 49ers’ defense and delivering a legendary performance would not shock me. But this is still a very good 49ers team, and given that we don’t know what version of Burrow we’ll be getting, I’m taking San Francisco.
The pick: 49ers (-1)
Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
My biggest issue with the Bills’ approach Monday night was that they got roped into playing the New England Patriots’ game when really I thought Buffalo could have been more aggressive offensively. I was surprised they didn’t use Josh Allen more on designed runs. We know they have those in the playbook, and that game seemed like the perfect time to lean into them.
Having said that, as mentioned previously, the Bills failed to capitalize on a lot of opportunities that could have completely shifted the narrative that followed that game.
The Bucs stomped the Falcons last week and have won three in a row. They are a different offense when Rob Gronkowski is on the field.
The Bills’ defense can expect to take a step back without corner Tre’Davious White, but I still think this is a dangerous team. I think we get a shootout, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Buffalo won outright.
The pick: Bills (+3.5)
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-12.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
Despite dealing with a toe injury, Aaron Rodgers looked better than he had all season in the Packers’ two games before their bye. This feels like a good spot to generate some MVP buzz on national TV. Right now, Tom Brady is the MVP favorite at +150, and Rodgers is second at +600.
As for the 4-8 Bears, Justin Fields will be back starting at quarterback.
An under-the-radar storyline here: How many neutral observers are going to be rooting for a blowout so they can tune in to the “Succession” finale and avoid spoilers? If Rodgers can deliver on this front, it could give him a leg up in the MVP race.
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The pick: Packers (-12.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-2) | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN
The Cardinals’ résumé screams Super Bowl contender. Arizona is 10-2 and has an NFC-best plus-119 point differential. They’re 8-1 with Kyler Murray as the starter, and even that one loss came down to the wire in a field-goal game against Green Bay.
It’s hard to know what to make of this Rams team. They blew out the Jaguars last week but previously had lost three in a row. Los Angeles really hasn’t had a quality win since September.
It feels like everyone keeps waiting for the Cardinals to get exposed, and it hasn’t happened yet. I’m not going to overthink it.
The pick: Cardinals (-2)
(Graphic: Wes McCabe / The Athletic; photo: Getty Images)
